by Edwin A. Sumcad –
… THEY ARE STAGING THIS RECESSION HOAX
Examine the economy and you will find it robust and running perfectly well – Sumcad
Know who the scaremongers are: The “Enemy of the State” (abbreviated EOTS which in the indigenous language of millions of Filipino-Americans in the United States means bastards) namely, the Deep State, the Socialist-Jihadist Left and the Fake Media. Unhinged with blinding rage, EOTS’ minions are now in a stampede to get Trump as 2020 presidential election approaches.
In a state of total desperation and panic, these truculent groupies, (some unknown Democrats punching with kid gloves but dwarfed and trivialized by their more ruthless and predatory rivals ready to devour them alive — militants of the extreme left always ready and quick to explode a bombshell on Trump at a drop of a hat although most of the time it fizzles out, misfires or backfires) are, to say the least, merchants of doom running for president in 2020. All of them are staging attacks after attacks of the President they knew they couldn’t stop on his way to a second term in office. The following well-read report from a senior spokesman of the diplomatic community confirmed what I’m saying about Trump as a sure 2020 winner with a zero-chance for Democrats to capture the White House and I quote: “Foreign Embassies preparing to celebrate Trump’s 2020 reelection victory – plotting for a better relations with the United States giving a zero chance for the Democrats of retaking the U.S. presidency.”
The evocators of gloom I am referring to – who by the way wish the economy would tank out and want to see that the country is down and out — knew Trump will still be president in the year 2020. What they are doing now — just a few months before their struggle to oust Trump from office will finally come to a dismal end in ignominious defeat — is just taking revenge against Trump not after but before the fact. Reminds me of a childish tantrum over a spilled milk. And to be honest, I truly empathize this intense feeling of envy and frustration as they face Trump’s triumph over their agony of defeat.
But that’s all what they can do with such limited brain power to spare, to spar with a genius . . . to joust with their Trump-guy on a target practice they never knew how to douse, dunk or defeat.
In this regard, the least I could say is that the series of defeats suffered by EOTS has a numbing effect that turned them into crazy whatchamacallits or gizmos, forgettable hydrophobic schmucks the public wouldn’t even remember who they are after November 2020 – just a bunch of disposables some venturous Americans may perhaps finger-out in a trashcan while holding their breath and pinching their nose for that awful smell in the air, or throwaways anyone may conceivably figure out in the dustbin of history to know who they were once before, bygone carnivores like extinct dinosaurs that once roamed the earth.
For example, let’s have a short rundown of those crushing defeats EOTS had suffered so far in their screwed-up attacks on Trump: Russian collusion and obstruction of justice. This didn’t work out in the Mueller report after two years of witch hunt and tremendous cost in terms of wasted time, effort, human sacrifice, and wastefully expended financial resources estimated at more than $35 million of tax money down the drain. It turned out that the Mueller investigation was just a cover-up of the Deep State’s coup against the President of the United States with serious collateral damage, casualties of the probe that destroyed lives (some of them impoverished, even innocent now languishing in jail). President Trump rightfully described that incredible fishing expedition a “witch hunt” ending in a “total disaster”.
The Democrat-socialist-radical-left clowns in the House of Representatives are still hallucinating to impeach Trump, again a wasteful, resource-squandering move endorsed by The Hit Squad – anti-U.S. Muslim militant-radicals Tlaib, Omar, and radical socialists Pressley and Ocasio-Cortez – jihadists disguised as representatives in Congress working against President Trump, his presidency and in general conniving as a unified single force before the camera whose frequent interviews and badmouthings are scripted for the rack and ruin of this country.
Acting in unison with prepared written speeches read in front of TV-camera, The Hit Squad really believe they are national celebrities – and they have the flair for it and relish on the attention they get — but whose public appearance mocked with contempt, U.S. alliance with Israel and the free world in the fight for freedom and democracy as we all know it, ridiculed our stand against terrorists, bashed and blasted our campaign against Islamic terrorism here and abroad particularly in the Middle East, insulted our 911 national tragedy when Muslim-American Rep. Omar supported by the other members of the Hit Squad justified the attacks of the World Trade Center in New York City by Islamic terrorist group al-Qaeda killing 2,996 people with more than 6,000 others injured; scorned and abused our traditional values, as well as embarrassed our existing socio-economic infrastructure with the end in view of abrogating and changing it, including changing the way we live.
But this impeachment mania which like crack cocaine Congressmen Jeffrey Nadler and Adam Schiff are addicted to, is also not going to work. Impeachment will not pass the Republican-controlled Senate. It will just die a natural death there. Impeachment is just another waste of the people’s tax money.
Then the radical left tried to rip off President Trump’s private life, his family and his person – in dirty politics, a kick in the groin or a blow below the belt. Here they tried the 25th Amendment on him, firing on his mental incapacity accusing him of being mentally unstable to govern.
But this false attack also failed miserably when to their chagrin, they discovered the truth: President Trump is a genius their small mind could neither fathom nor cope up with or at least understand even a bit.
Trump sits in the Oval Office as President of United States with one of the highest IQ of politicians that ever occupied the U.S. presidency. J.Q. Adams has the highest IQ on record at 165.75 maximum. Next to him was Donald Trump’s 156+ IQ just minimum – not maximum – which means had the maximum been recorded, Trump’s IQ could have been more than that of Adam’s. I don’t write down the facts of this part of the report with exactitude without presenting any supporting evidence that’s impeccable.
As President, Trump had accomplished extraordinary feat greater than the top four U.S. Presidents on record combined, had ever accomplished while he was barely halfway on his first term in office. Those great presidents on record combined that President Trump surpassed, are Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Theodore Roosevelt lined up in history in the order of their “greatness” (see my previous published editorial report in, and exclusive to, this Website: “Trump’s Superior Mind”, June 30, 2019).
Just to restate a line: The IQ test for presidents was conducted by Psychologist Dean Keith Simonton, in the Davis Study at University of California in 2006.
There is no doubt Trump has a genius level of IQ, so much so that hecklers in high and low places barely understand him and hardly know what he is doing to the economy, a healthy and robust economy with high growth rates in time, never before experienced in this country in many decades. Unknown to his pestering gadflies, Trump went to the famous Wharton School and had studied finance and economics he was good at, and shortly thereafter to easily become a multibillionaire at the head of a huge business empire he founded, managed and run successfully, before he became President.
When the 25th Amendment didn’t work on Trump, EOTS are now playing the racist card against the President, branding him a supremacist.
2020 Democratic presidential wannabes derived their racist-supremacist badmouthing of Trump from the Muslim jihadists in Congress, specifically House Representatives Omar, Tlaib and radical socialists Pressley and Ocasio-Cortez. The latest false accusation is that President Trump is dividing the country by singling out blacks, minorities and multiracial minorities of the population. But this also fails flat on their face.
This succeeding failure of socialist-Jihadists to bushwhack President Trump is so blatant and ominous it annoyed the American public. What is true behind this fake charge is that President Trump had singled out African Americans, Latinos, Asians and other colored race in this country and gave them together with the entire white middle class, low unemployment rates for the first time in decades that changed their life, and by improving their life they were given a new social and economic status they have never experienced before.
Notice the rhetorical blasts of the unhinged radical left portrayed and/or spearheaded by Beto O’Rourke and Cory Bookers falsely accusing Trump of causing the terrible mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton right after the President condemned white supremacists and gun violence. Those accusations did not add up and proven to be untrue by what Trump was doing which was the opposite, and this disinformation and deceit did not fool the American public. The truth is, Trump is not a racist or a white supremacist, has never been, and will never be. Why? Because we know that in many occasions, this President had condemned racism, abhorred violence in any form, criticized and denounced white supremacists, every time the radical left play the race card against him. To say that he is a supremacist and a racist is malapropism – a nasty oxymoron.
So what now when attacks after attacks against President Trump did not get any thumbs up from the general public? By the way, Trump’s approval rating has always been almost steady and after the recent mass shootings, it surprisingly improved due to bad mouthing and false accusations of the militant left directed against him. Those fabricated attacks did not pass the approval of the American public because millions and millions of reasonable Americans can see through the thin façade of falsehood the complicit Fake Media patronized and published like toxicants fed to the public, so that EOTS had to regroup and rethink their failed onslaught against the President of the United States and renew their tone and mode of aggression.
This time EOTS came out with a new strategy of hostility and malice: Attack the economy, the President’s calling card to 2020, by launching (watch out!) a RECESSION HOAX. It is similar to the Russian-collusion con-game the Deep State played which with the Mueller report, blew up on their face. This recession sting scares the wit of ordinary Americans living their own simple life because EOTS are ringing the bell of alarm that economic crash is coming and now it is just around the corner.
For example, for illustration purposes, let us choose one from those leftish scaremongers who are articulating this recession hoax — Pocahontas Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She wrote her doomsday prediction against the Trump economy in a paper “The Coming Economic Crash — And How to Stop It.” Let us first be clear about this ruse before I examine, uncork or pry open it for you and exposed its innards of lies and falsehood.
With the appearance of being scholarly, this published paper is nothing more than an “apotheosis”, the term we literary writers use to describe self-glorification of characters either in ballad or drama (stage plays), prose or poetry, short story or novel; it is in fact manipulative, a tricky beguilement to seduce attention, in this case another Warren’s latest decoys to dupe the American public with longhair lies and falsehood. This attempt to make herself appear as if she is an intellectual match to Trump doesn’t work, and I will tell you why given the fact that people in the academe can see through political spooks the likes of Warren.
I start with a little backgrounder: Warren is a radical pseudo-economist (not a real schooled economist) who as a lawyer focuses on bankruptcy law. She is for consumers’ right to file bankruptcy though how freewheeling that right might be. She fights legislations regulating that right. As a radical advocate, Warren was all in for the right to file bankruptcy even the right to abuse that right in the name of the other concomitant right of a person to be free to do whatever he/she wants, which I read is driven by a distorted sense of patriotism. Realizing the danger of that radical and dangerous advocacy for abuse of bankruptcy law, Congress passed “Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act” in 2005.
In her political paper written with the appearance of an economic chroma, tinge and hue, “The Coming Economic Crash . . .”, Warren pointed out – and I am sure she did it only by rule of thumb because she was not a schooled economist to really know and understand the rudiments or nitty-gritty of what he was writing about — recession in the manufacturing sector of the economy.
It is strange to me what Warren was seeing in the U.S. economy because the manufacturing sector is one of the busiest and strongest engines of growth of the current economy under Trump’s watch. And it is unlikely if not remotely the strongest sector that would cave in first and trigger the economic crash Warren was scaremongering about. Details of this scientific study in the graduate school of economics where I came from in my earlier days in the academe, is a long-winded dissertation for me to discuss here. Limited space does not allow lecturing a maverick politician who steps out of the line and making a fool out of the American people.
Surprisingly, Pocahontas also saw household and corporate debts which according to her are “vulnerable” to shock causing the economy to crumble. A fact-check on this wild assertion found no supporting evidence that would convince any economist worth his/her salt that Warren is sane in portraying this tectonic fault of her foreseen catalytic economic crash, which to her is doomsday.
What I saw are the Senator’s suggestions to avert the alleged catastrophe which she averred is sure to happen. By the very nature of her recommendations I found them to be in fact dangerously disturbing and apocalyptic. It speaks about her radical persona as an ultra-advocate extremis whose respect for truth is terribly wanting.
To stop this economic crash that she imagined, she was fired up as usual and went bonkers by proposing forgiveness of the $600 billion student loan debt, universal child-care or universal healthcare and raising the minimum wage to at least $15 per hour. I will expose the falsity of each of these one by one.
First, no doubt massive debt amnesty will throw out of balance the country’s financial infrastructure and screw up the credit system causing irreparable damage to the economy. The system runs different kinds of debts worth billions and billions of US dollars and if millions of debtors whose right to the same forgiveness is denied, we could expect political explosion and economic implosion worse than doomsday to which Warren’s economic crash is nothing in comparison.
Universal healthcare and/or universal child-care requires massive cost, so huge that cost-analysis shows it is deemed un-fundable, and the indiscriminate application of wage and income policy. i.e. raising the minimum wage that creates wage-drift leading to a galloping inflation that causes all kinds of economic woes, will definitely push the economy into the precipice of disaster, into economic crash, if you may, Warren was imagining with eyes closed. But even before that, Warren will collide with the Feds, watcher of inflation, and the Feds will stop her right there on the spot where she stands. Again a futile exercise that marks her braggadocio or swaggering nonsense as usual.
My overall findings show that Warren’s concerns and warnings of economic doom are merely political abstractions of a lying politician who is running for president and desperately wanting to gain a political traction for her candidacy.
Recall the Cherokee Indian identity-con Pocahontas pulled out to connect herself to minorities, i.e. Native-American stuff? Just recently, she went public apologizing for the harm she had done to the American Indian tribe she offended, another trick of a foxy politician calculated to swindle Native Americans of their votes she badly needed because she is running for president. I see no difference when she pulled this economic crash hoax with that of falsifying her claim that she has a Cherokee Indian blood running in her veins when that is not true, in fact she is too far removed from her Native American heritage claim which may be categorized as a political sting.
The Inverted Yield Curve Blackmail
But other than Pocahontas, in general EOTS this time are like Warren trying to be “intellectual” in their attempt to scam public opinion and move it to the left by using the “Inverted Yield Curve” (IYC-scare) to predict an economic crash. Because Trump’s calling card for the 2020 election is the booming economy, this became the latest target. Economists are familiar about IYC, but the layman and the general public are not.
IYC refers to a line or curve in a graph, picturing and tracking interest rates “at a set point in time”, i.e., bonds with different dates of maturity. It is a benchmark of debts in the market, i.e., mortgage and banking lending rates and it is used to measure economic growth and/or economic changes in time.
In a Normal Yield Curve, the line slopes upward reflecting a higher demand for long-term bonds with higher yields and lower demand for low-price short-term securities. This is visually clear in the graph. Investors would buy short-term securities, hoping to purchase long-term bonds for higher yields. NYC turns into IYC when “The increasing onset of demand for longer-maturity bonds and the lack of demand for shorter-term securities lead to higher prices but lower yields on longer-maturity bonds, and lower prices but higher yields on shorter-term securities, further inverting a down-sloped yield curve,” to what is now known as Inverted Yield Curve.
Generally speaking, IYC usually signals a recession onward. But a signal of recession is not recession itself. The signal becomes recession only when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields because it means that the cost of short-term borrowings is higher which makes it expensive to operate a business or company and this stalls investments. Also when the cost of consumer borrowings rises, consumer spending slows down. This all lead to economic contraction and unemployment rises creating a virtual recession. But again it is only a virtual recession until all of the economic factors or components — also called existing economic magnitudes — are read correctly pointing downward.
Inversely, there is no argument among respectable economists that IYC creates a false signal of recession, especially to the uninitiated who have a distorted or dishonest reading of IYC because of hidden intention. Add to it the fact that most ignoramus think IYC is recession itself. As far as illicit or fraudulent purposes are concerned, obviously EOTS darkly think that way using the IYC scare to jibe with their anti-Trump agenda, even though they are sending a wrong signal of economic crash to the public.
To my knowledge – and I cannot speak for other macro-economists specializing on fiscal, monetary and/or financial policies like I do — IYC has never been a foolproof of any incoming recession, much more of telling us of an imminent or predictive economic crash. In this sense, pseudo-economists are often misguided, especially when they rush to conclusions with ulterior motives. More so in Economics, the inverted yield curve does not and cannot tell the state of the economy, especially when the existing strong components of economic growth belie the prediction of an economy allegedly about to crash.
I have examined those major economic components of Trump’s strong economy. I began by looking at the U.S. GDP running to about 21200.00 USD billion. Macro-model analysis projected this figure to be around 22750 USD billion in the advent of next year 2020. This will not be the case if the economy is going kaput. In development economics, I am always fascinated as much as I trust econometric models. If there is any alarming sign of any economic blow out in the days ahead, such ominous handwriting on the wall cannot escape the monitor and/or viewing screen of an econometric model.
There is no showing at all that the U.S. economy and the global economy are dangerously faltering which would indicate that an apocalyptic economic bust is forthcoming. There are jobs everywhere. Low unemployment rate occurring for the first time in decades is of public knowledge. Ordinary people – working Americans — are earning their keeps, and more than 8.0 % is the rate of household savings, one of the healthiest indicators of a continuously booming economy. I don’t have to go any farther than this to find out that the state of the national economy is secured. There are no telltales that it is convulsing and/or about to collapse.
But wary of the specter of the dreaded rising inflation, the Federal Reserves (Feds) increased interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Not much to cause an alarm but this tuning down of the economy because of fear that it is overheating, was more than enough to chop off GDP growth rate by more than 1.0%, from 3.1% down to 2.0%. Without this Feds intervention, the economy is on a solid growth rate at 3+% this year and next year. And because of this untimely monetary policy intervention, we are down to just 2.0% this last quarter of the year up to next year.
This move of the Feds kind of pissed off President Trump because Chairman Jerome Powell did this ill-timed economic interruption, a monetary-policy-decision interference, on the ebb of the 2020 presidential election where Trump’s campaign rides high on the robust U.S. Economy with phenomenal growth rates against the Democrats’ zero growth-rate or negative economic policy. The Feds gives a wild-goose-ride to Democrats now indiscreetly claiming that economic growth is going down from 3+% to 2.0% because of impending economic meltdown. This ride has nothing to do with the economy – it is just a political decision, an uneconomic decision . . . it is just a Powell-kind of thing that unwittingly or intentionally stifled the continuing growth of the economy.
This leads to the question whether or not this Powell guy Trump appointed to the Feds is a pragmatist-economist that the nation can trust, or just a partisan bum like some guttersnipes and derelicts President Trump had unceremoniously fired or selectively kicked out of office. Trump has a good record of A-1 picks of appointees and they are like fresh apples inside the refrigerator but they withered and became twiggy, rotten and unusable, and for lack of watch and personal attention, they spoiled.
Speaking of spoiled apples, did Powell join the anti-Trump underground to snipe at the President and like Anthony “The Mooch” Scaramucci didn’t like Trump’s tweets giving him an excuse to retaliate and attack the President after he was fired, out of vengeance? I tend to agree with Trump that Powell is a “Mooch” or another Speaker Paul Ryan who during his speakership of the House threw Trump under the bus. I examined the reasons leading to the conclusion that the Chairman of the Feds is a partisan artist leaning to the left rather than a pragmatist like most of us in the Economics discipline who remained neutral and just talk of the economy as it is and why it is.
The problem is, Feds’ decision to intervene with interest rate hikes are grounded on fear with doubtful justifications. It begins with this freak out assumption that the global economy is slowing down. Most likely Powell is aware of the announcement of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that the growth projection of the global economy at 3.7% in 2019 is going to be scaled down to 3.5% next year because of certain structural adjustments needed to sustain its stability and vitality. This slightly downward OECD estimate is not because the global economy is declining or shrinking to warrant the Feds cause of alarm, a reaction which is obviously farcical, if not utterly facetious and ludicrous. Here, it only shows the Feds’ bias and Powell’s questionable intention.
Anxiety over trade war between the United States and China was cited to educe fear that the dreaded inflation is now at the doorstep of the U.S. economy. Although world trade is negatively impacted by about 2.0%, it is not a destabilization risk to drive a dreaded inflation scare into the U.S. strong economy. In spite of price increases on goods hit by tariff war, internal inflation remains at 2.0% which kept the economy humming, and even pregnant with expectations that dividends are forthcoming out of our negative balance of trade with China which President Trump is trying to square out and eventually accomplish, and judging from what’s going in the trade-war zone, accomplish it Trump will definitely do.
I also take exception to this outlandish speculation that “if oil prices hit $US 100 a barrel by 2020, it could add around 0.5% to global rates of inflation”. It is totally hogwash, and to me, irrelevant. The negative effect worldwide would hardly affect us.
We are the world’s largest economy and our dependence on imported crude oil is a nightmare of the past because of our “reliance on self-produced shale oil”, a quote to make this statement official. U.S. is now the world net exporter of natural gas. This statement is also officially true, and on record.
I could go on and on rebutting all those false justifications to cut our solid economic growth rate from 3+% down to 2.0% because of this politically motivated assertion or say-so that our economy is overheating (no it is not, it is just steady and behaving well on its own traction in time) that if not slowed down it becomes a sucker to creeping inflations which the Feds is allegedly trying to nip in the bud by hiking interest rates.
Fear coming from the Feds, the pillar of the nation’s monetary policy that causes panic in the marketplace is sending stocks, bonds and the like, to plummet down instead of soar up, creating a shockwave of destruction to the economy similar to that caused by a killer earthquake. Losses cause misery, even a spike of the nation’s record on homicide and suicide rates that slant or slope upward. That’s the path bank-run goes through snowballing towards economic ruin which the magnitude of losses and suffering of people affected is, ironically, incapable of monetary estimation.
The nation’s Central Bank – the Feds — is supposed to be the first to know about those horrifying consequences if the marketplace is experiencing a panic attack, more so when it is Feds’ primary job to avoid or prevent them from happening.
But obviously this omission is glaringly clear in the eyes of the American public. For the Feds to deliberately ignore all these in bad faith and not only exacerbating and abetting panic but for the Central Bank itself to cause chaos and bedlam in the marketplace, is unbelievably insane, if not criminal, to say the least.
There is no doubt that insanity drives the conspiracy of the left and the Media to peddle to the crowd this recession hoax masterminded by those trying to defeat Trump in 2020, but could not, even though how much they try, and how weird those attempts have been to steamroll and vanquish him with attacks so vicious and evil it just boggles the imagination. #
© Edwin A. Sumcad. Access nationalwriterssyndicate.com August 22, 2019.